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Corona pandemic: Experts recommend partially removing contact blocks
For weeks people have been wondering how long the corona crisis could continue. According to experts from Germany, a turning point could soon be reached in the spread of the new pathogen in Germany. The scientists recommend lifting contact blocks partially and regionally differently.
After weeks of frustrating news about coronavirus infections in Germany, there are now first pleasant surprises. The turning point of the corona crisis could slowly come into view.
The pandemic could peak at the end of April
According to a statement by the Johannes Gutenberg University (JGU) Mainz, a turning point could have been reached in the spread of the disease caused by the coronavirus COVID-19 in Germany:
According to the experts, if the existing measures to reduce social contacts were to continue after the Easter holidays and the population would continue to do so, the number of new cases would continue to decline and the pandemic in Germany would already peak at the end of April.
Then almost 60,000 people in Germany would suffer from COVID-19 at the same time and the total number of those reported as infected would not exceed 200,000.
An interdisciplinary team of scientists from the JGU and the University of Hamburg supported these results by applying a widespread statistical model, the so-called Gompertz curve, to the figures published by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) on COVID-19 Diseases in Germany.
Health system could reach its limits
"The curve no longer curves upwards, but downwards because the number of new cases decreases," explains Prof. Dr. Klaus Wmerung, economist at JGU and one of the leading scientists in modeling.
If the measures to reduce social contacts were completely abolished after the Easter holidays, the number of newly infected and sick people would rise again with a few days' delay and the health system would probably reach its limits in May.
"It is therefore not advisable to completely remove the previous contact blocks," says Wuchter.
Gradually abolish existing measures
However, the scientists do not speak out in favor of maintaining the contact barriers completely: "The economic and social costs would be too high, too many companies would have to close then," says Wammlung.
The expert recommends that existing measures be phased out gradually and in different regions: "For example, restaurants could initially only be reopened in some regions, or in some regions schools could only be opened for pupils from ninth grade onwards and in other regions for Students from the fifth grade. "
According to the experts, a comparison of the developments in the figures for COVID-19 diseases in the various regions could then reveal after a few weeks what effect the different approach would have on the spread of the disease and, if necessary, adjustments.
"If such differences were introduced at the level of the federal states, our federal system could be used to learn from each other," said Wuchter. (ad)
Author and source information
This text corresponds to the specifications of the medical literature, medical guidelines and current studies and has been checked by medical doctors.